The stock market in 2025 has been anything but calm, and the escalating tensions involving Iran—such as recent U.S. strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities—have created a complex market backdrop. With oil prices spiking, inflation fears creeping back, and global markets jittery, you might be wondering how to navigate this Iran driven market. The good news? Certain stocks tend to shine in times of geopolitical unrest, especially when oil and defense sectors are in the spotlight.
Here’s what we know:
- Oil prices briefly jumped by ~2%, then stabilized.
- Global equities were mostly flat; Iran driven market seem to “shrink” but not crash.
- Analysts believe oil disruption risk remains the key, while equities hold firm if it stays contained.
In short: volatility is rising—but not full panic. That makes this an interesting time to consider specific stocks that can thrive under oil spikes, defense spending, and market rotation toward stability.
In this article, I’ll highlight few investments to consider in today’s volatile Iran driven market. I’ll explain why they’re worth your attention, and share practical tips on when and how to buy them. Let’s dive in this guide to help you make smart investment moves in this tense environment.
Why the Iran Driven Market Matters
The Israel-Iran conflict, intensified by U.S. strikes on Iranian nuclear sites in June 2025, has rattled global markets. Oil prices have jumped nearly 12% in a week, with Brent crude hovering around $72 per barrel, and analysts warn of prices hitting $100 if Iran blocks the Strait of Hormuz, a critical route for 20% of global oil trade. Higher oil prices could reignite inflation, delay Federal Reserve rate cuts, and pressure stock valuations, especially in growth-heavy tech sectors. Meanwhile, defense stocks are gaining traction as military demand surges, and safe-haven assets like gold are rallying.
This Iran driven market is defined by:
- Oil Price Volatility: Attacks on Iranian energy infrastructure and threats to the Strait of Hormuz have spiked crude prices, boosting energy stocks.
- Defense Sector Strength: Increased military spending by the U.S. and Israel is lifting defense contractors.
- Inflation Risks: Higher energy costs could push inflation up, with RBC estimating a rise to 4%, limiting Fed rate cuts to just two in late 2025.
- Market Swings: The S&P 500 dropped 1.1% on June 13 but rebounded nearly 1% by June 16, showing quick recoveries but ongoing uncertainty.
In this environment, sectors like energy and defense offer opportunities, while careful timing and risk management are key. Below, we’ll explore four stocks poised to benefit, based on Iran driven market trends and expert insights.
Four Stocks to Watch in an Iran Driven Market
Golar LNG (NASDAQ: GLNG) – Natural gas shipping
Why consider Golar LNG in Current Iran Driven Market:
Liquid natural gas (LNG) ships are in demand as nations diversify energy supply away from Middle Eastern oil. Golar LNG transports LNG globally, and even modest oil shocks can push traders toward gas alternatives.
Performance snapshot:
Golar Lng is an equity in the USA market. The price is currently around 42 USD. Recent fundamentals paint a strong picture:
- Q1 2025 earnings: Golar reported net income of $8 million and adjusted EBITDA of $41 million, supported by solid performance in its FLNG business.
- New long-term contracts: The FLNG Gimi unit reached commercial operations for the Greater Tortue Ahmeyim project, creating a 20‑year lease expected to unlock roughly $3 billion in adjusted EBITDA backlog.
- Growth pipeline: Earlier this month, Golar secured charters in Argentina—a 95 Mtpa project—adding $13.7 billion in EBITDA backlog. The company is also developing more FLNG units through its vessel-conversion program.
- Analyst sentiment: A majority of analysts rate GLNG a Buy/Outperform, with an average target price of $48.64, signifying a potential upside.
- Dividend yield: Golar declared a $0.25 quarterly dividend, translating to an annual yield of about 4%, which is generous for this sector.
Bottom line: LNG is firing on all cylinders. Its transition to a pure-play FLNG company is being rewarded with long-duration contracts, robust cash flow, and strong analyst ratings. For investors seeking exposure to energy infrastructure and the clean energy transition, GLNG looks well-positioned—especially for those who see value and growth potential at today’s entry point.
Why to buy:
- Short‐term: A geopolitical flare‑up could push gas demand and freight rates higher.
- Long‑term: LNG is a growth story as energy transition speeds up.
When to buy:
Dip‑buy on brief profit‑taking in energy markets. Watch shipping‐sector earnings for confirmation.
Lockheed Martin (NYSE: LMT) – Defense prime contractor
Why consider Lockheed Martin in Current Iran Driven Market:
Heightened Middle East tensions often trigger defense spending increases on weapon systems, drones, air defense—Lockheed is a top beneficiary.
Performance Lockheed Martin (NYSE: LMT)
As a leading defense contractor, Lockheed Martin supplies critical systems like THAAD missile interceptors and F-35 jets, heavily used by Israel to counter Iranian ballistic missiles. Pentagon spending is expected to surge if tensions escalate, boosting Lockheed’s order book.
LMT is trading around $477, showing a modest gain from the previous close. The stock has rallied into the mid-$470s, with intraday highs near $478.50, reflecting investor confidence following the company’s strong Q1 results.
In the first quarter of 2025, Lockheed Martin delivered net earnings of $1.71 billion, or $7.28 per share, outperforming analyst expectations of around $6.34, marking an impressive 14.8% beat. Revenue rose to $17.96 billion, topping estimates of $17.78 billion, driven by strength in aerospace and missile programs.
Operational metrics paint a compelling picture: segment operating margin expanded to 13.2%, up from 11.8% a year ago, and the firm ended the quarter with a $173 billion backlog, up 8.5% year-over-year. This robust backlog, especially in missile programs and F‑35 production, along with dividends and share repurchases amounting to $1.5 billion, highlight both demand resilience and shareholder-friendly capital allocation.
Lockheed’s stock has been stable, with analysts reiterating “buy” ratings due to its role in modern warfare. Its consistent government contracts provide a buffer against Iran driven market volatility.
Risks during Iran driven market:
A swift diplomatic resolution could reduce military spending, slowing Lockheed’s growth. High valuations in the defense sector also pose a risk if investor sentiment shifts.
Catalysts to watch:
- U.S. military aid or sales to Gulf partners.
- Congress approving defense spending boosts.
- News of strikes or further Iran escalation.
When to buy:
Build a position after signs of rising tensions—like U.S./Iran missile actions—usually confirmed by policy statements. Set buy levels based on recent dips after quarterly earnings.
Palantir Technologies Inc. (NASDAQ: PLTR) – AI-driven platforms
Why Consider Palantir in Iran Driven Market?
Palantir’s AI-driven platforms are used by U.S. and Israeli agencies for intelligence, targeting, and disaster response, making it a key player in modern warfare. A recent $178 million Pentagon contract underscores its growing role. Palantir’s “GREAT” InvestingPro Financial Health score reflects strong profit margins and revenue growth, positioning it for gains in a conflict-driven market.
Performance Snapshot:
Palantir’s stock has been volatile but benefits from AI and defense demand. Its focus on government contracts offers stability amid Iran driven market swings.
Risks:
Palantir’s high valuation could lead to pullbacks if AI-driven defense spending doesn’t scale as expected. A broader sell-off in tech stocks due to inflation fears could also hurt.
ExxonMobil Corporation (NYSE: XOM) – Oil exposure
Why Consider ExxonMobil?
ExxonMobil is an oil major, has seen a 3.8% rally in recent sessions, driven by oil price spikes from the Iran-Israel conflict. Its global operations and strong cash flow make it a reliable bet in an Iran driven market.
Performance Snapshot:
ExxonMobil’s stock tracks energy sector gains, with robust production capacity to capitalize on higher prices. Its dividend yield adds appeal for income-focused investors.
Risks:
ExxonMobil faces risks from a potential de-escalation or increased U.S. and Russian oil production, which could cap price gains. Regulatory pressures on fossil fuels also linger.
Are ETFs a Safer Alternative In Iran-driven Market?
In today’s Iran driven market, volatility is high and headlines shift daily. That’s why exchange-traded funds (ETFs) like the Vanguard Energy ETF (VDE) and SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) offer compelling, lower-risk opportunities for investors seeking exposure to rising energy prices or safe-haven assets without picking individual stocks.
Vanguard Energy ETF (VDE) – Broad U.S. energy exposure
Why consider VDE:
If oil surges on Iran disruption, broad energy equities tend to follow. VDE gives diversified exposure to U.S. energy, from majors to services.
Strategic value:
- Oil surged to near $78/barrel recently.
- VDE benefits from sector-wide boosts, limiting single-company risk.
When to buy:
Gradual entry as oil maintains $75–$85 range. Dollar-cost average over 2–4 weeks to smooth volatility and skip spikes.
Why it’s relevant:
In volatile markets, investors flock to gold. Amid Iran tensions, gold is a classic risk-off asset—and analysts note it’s already rising.
Why buy gold now:
- If broader conflict begins, gold could jump 3–5%.
- Even calm runs may benefit gold as insurance.
When to buy:
After an initial gold spike, wait for a mild pullback to add positions. A gradual build helps capture further upside.
How to Use This Portfolio Strategy
- Watch news flow daily—oil prices, Iran statements, Congressional briefs.
- Set alerts for Golar LNG near $38 and LMT dips.
- Stagger buys in VDE and GLD to minimize entry risk.
- Track positions weekly and set stop-losses (e.g., 5–10%).
- Rebalance if geopolitical tension fades—rotate gains out of energy/defense into broader market.
Risks to Watch
- Escalation: A full scaled war could crash risk assets and benefit gold, but hurt energy/delivery.
- De-escalation: Peace overture could collapse oil/gas gains and drag defense stocks.
- Fed Impact: Rising oil fueling inflation may delay Fed rate cuts—mixed for market.
The Big Picture
Iran-driven tension creates select opportunities:
- Energy shipping (GLNG)
- Defense contracting (LMT)
- AI-driven platforms (PLTR)
- Oil exposure (XOM)
- Broad energy exposure (VDE)
- Safe-haven buffering (GLD)
This isn’t a buy-everything play—but a balanced response to geopolitical risk, with timely entries, diversified positions, and clear signals for action.
Final Words
An Iran driven market can spark volatility—but also niche opportunities. By positioning in LNG, defense, energy, oil, AI and gold, you can balance growth and safety.
Key takeaways:
- Do not chase spikes; focus on pullbacks and signal-driven triggers.
- Use dollar-cost averaging to manage volatility.
- Anchor defense and gold as hedges, while energy plays for upside.
With this approach, you won’t just ride out whipsaws—you’ll deploy capital smartly, based on real-world triggers. As always, do your homework or consult a professional.
